While Washington is treating Beijing's intentions like a mystery box, Beijing is very clear that its approach to Taiwan is political first, with military to only follow a failure.

Contrary to the charges of conspiracists the United States played no role in the recent violence in Brazil's capital. A failure to reckon with polarization there will be rebound against the United States nonetheless.

For all the discussion about a "Pink Tide" in Latin America, the only left-leaning governments which are not in trouble are those which have yet to take office.

Protests over Gay Rights in Qatar reveal the declining influence of the West in large parts of the world.

The coverage of Italy's elections is high on alarmism about an inflated "fascist" threat and scarce when it comes to analysis of what actually transpired.

The Biden Administration has been slow to grasp that internal dynamics in Iran mean that Tehran is not interested in a new nuclear accord.

( This was originally featured on Amac under a different title https://amac.us/ukraine-silences-doubters-and-takes-the-first-steps-to-win-war-with-russia/)

(Originally published on AMAC https://amac.us/europes-energy-crisis-approaches-breaking-point/)

Putin finds himself in a position regarding Ukraine from which retreat is not an option, and negotiations hold out no prospect of a settlement acceptable to Russia. America is uninterested in offering him an exit ramp

The struggle between Warsaw and Brussels is not really about the rule of law. It is about the European Unions efforts to rule through law. (Originally on AMAC)

Biden cannot be blamed for migrants wishing to come to America. The responsibility for antagonizing the neghbors whose cooperation is vital to a functional border policy is entirely on him.

After three elections, countless scandals, and three American Presidents, Justin Truedeau's luck may be about to run out.

Originally posted on AMAC as https://amac.us/how-biden-is-blowing-a-historic-opportunity-to-free-cuba/

Once cited as an exemplar of liberal goverance, South Africa is descending into chaos, as the government tries to appease the forces of dissolution and chaos

(Originally published on AMAC and featured on Real Clear Politics under the title "Even Iran’s Leaders Are Admitting the Regime Is Corrupt, but John Kerry Is Determined to Legitimize Them")

(Originally posted on AMAC https://amac.us/could-china-win-a-war-with-the-u-s-over-taiwan/)

Originally published on AMAC at https://amac.us/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth-why-china-has-no-choice-but-to-move-on-taiwan-and-to-move-soon/

The events at the US Capitol were not a victory for the Constitution or for Congress. Like most failed coups, the winners were political actors other than the protagonists.

The Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict has not only set back the development of both states, it has crippled the economic and political ambition of Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the West in the region. Yet it continues.

The Venezuelan opposition's efforts to remove Maduro have done more than anything else to ensure his continued survival, and Juan Guaido's bid for power is a farce that is in danger for transforming into tragedy

With a "deal" imminant, Theresa May faces the likihood of defeat in the Commons as MPs of all stripes vote for Schrodinger's rejection. But Jeremy Corbyn, not Remainers or Leavers, , holds almost all the card

Germany has a long tradition of adopting stubborn stands in the Balkans out of misplaced principle leading to disaster, from 1914 to 1991. But the opposition to a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia is truly absurd

The inexplicable inaction of the Catalonian government following the referendum vote shifted the political initiatative back to the Spanish government, and has left seccesionists divided and demoralized

The Spanish government was in a no situation with regards to the Catalan referendum. Precedent showed that allowing it to proceed would have established its legitimacy, whereas enforcing the law was a PR disaster

The decision of the Scottish Government to seek a second referendum is a gamble that the panic surrounding Brexit will disguise the fact that the prospects for an independent Scotland are worse than in 2014

Twenty years after it successfully ended a war, the Dayton structure has failed miserably at building a stable and united Bosnia in peace. Why not allow the state to split up?

As Germans prepare to go to the polls, the greatest threat to Angela Merkel is neither anger over her asylum policy, nor populism of the right or left. Nor even is it new SPD leader Martin Schulz. It is boredom itself

For all the venom directed at "Facists" by leftwing activists throughout history, the truly revolutionary forces on the right have always taken their inspirationn from the example set by their leftwing counterparts

A decade ago it was common for neoconservative thinkers to claim that 9/11 marked the end of the "End of History" that began with the end of the Cold War. With hindsight, it merely marked the midpoint.

The complexity of Friday's has led to a focus on whether or not the coup was somehow "staged".That is to miss the importance of how politics in Turkey has become about one man, and effective opposition about killing him.

Regardless of what the proper American policy should be, Barack Obama's intervention in the EU referendum campaign was almost certainly a mistake. For him, for David Cameron, and for both countries.

The recent victory of the opposition alliance in elections for Venezuala's National Assembly provides both the possibility of change, and the danger that politics will now move into a struggle to the death.

When looking back at the handling of Greece since 2008, it is unlikely anyone will emerge covered in glory. But when measured by such standards, the behavior of everyone involved in Greece's referendum is abominable

The recent struggle for succession in Zimbabwe is a remainder that informal networks of power will almost always prevail over formal constitutional procedure in non-democratic states.

The resignation of Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel marks the final eclipse within the Obama Adminstration of those realist Republicans who defected during the last decade through disatisfaction with the Iraq war.

International policy is about making choices about different priorities. In 1936, European powers failed to weigh the relative importance of Italy's alliance against Hitler with Ethiopia's independence and lost both.

The focus by the international media on the integrity of the results in Turkey's recent local elections detracts from the important lesson that while the AKP is politically mortal, the opposition remains fragmented.

The prerequisite for any sort of effective action within the Ukraine is to decide whether Kiev is facing a domestic rebellion for an outside invasion. Failing to do so means confusing the lines about the use of force

Turkey's local elections this weekend are the first occasion on which the ruling AKP party faces the prospect of a substantial loss of support. How they respond will determine the future of democracy in Turkey.

Turkey's opposition has to abandon fantasies of military coups and delusions that the AKP will implode while they do nothing in order to recognize that only broadening their appeal can they challenge Erdogan for power.

The "American" experience has often been cited as a successful counterpoint to unsuccessful efforts at assimilation elsewhere. But America's success may owe less to culture, and more to distance than is commonly assumed.