Covid19: Where I am watching the numbers? - Updated Daily(Latest 4/27/2020)
Introduction
(4/11/2020)
The second wave of Covid19 hitting Europe and the United States has made the January outbreak in China look like a small sideshow, or at least the official numbers. According to those figures, Chinese citizens make up only around 3300 or 3% of the total global deaths at this time. It is understandable then that the media focuses on the rising numbers in Western countries, and this is justified, but ultimately almost every country in Europe and North America has instituted lock-downs and appears to be moving towards containing the "curve" of infections. More worrying are what happens elsewhere. Especially in Africa and the Middle East.
Some are not worried at all. The Financial Times Coronavirus Tracker, which charts the numbers for countries around the world is remarkably unworried. Focused on trend lines, its authors have often considered a lack of numbers or of exponential growth in cases or deaths as signs they are not taking place, at one point two weeks ago declaring that Indonesia and India seemed to have contained the virus and wondering if Turkey had done the same. The problem is that case numbers are a product of testing. One reason death rates look so different between countries is that testing rates vary, and if few tests are being conducted then the death rate will be higher as only the sickest will be tested. Algeria, for instance, has recorded 1,761 cases and 256 deaths as of April 10th, implying a death rate of nearly 15%. And while some might ascribe this to a poor health system, Sweden, which has a vastly superior health system, but has largely avoided mass testing, recorded 9,685 cases and 870 deaths, implying a death rate of over 9% at the same time. Exponential math is vital to understanding the growth of epidemics in a scientific sense, but only if one has scientific data. That data does not exist on national scales even within Europe as shown by the trouble models have had with the UK. It does not exist outside.
Which does not mean we lack data. We just have to apply a somewhat more qualitative screen. One that recognizes we are only getting part of the picture and applies what we know to speculate about the rest. Are the numbers moving upwards? While the mathematicians are correct in noting that whether it is exponential matters if we had data, in countries where we don't death rates will often vary from day to day as regions fail to make daily reports. A country like Mexico can vary between 30 deaths one day, 21 the next, and 39 the following. The question is not the speed the numbers are going up day to day but whether they are. Because what the mathematicians can also tell us is that infections behave on a curve. The rate is either increasing or it is decreasing. Therefore if over a week the direction of travel is upwards it means we are probably looking at exponential growth regardless of the actual numeric details. With that said I would like to present several countries I think merit a closer look.
I plan to update this section daily in order to track the changes in numbers in these countries as well as anything else I find interesting. I may decide to add US states and/or additional nations if I feel something significant is happening. For instance, I decided on April 12th to add the Philippines after a rapid rise in deaths, and the information that as of the previous week, capacity only existed to process around 250 tests per day.
Update 4/27/2020
In the last week the trend for Covid19 has gone in different directions in different countries. Here is an effective summary of where I perceive the outbreak heading over the last week.
Done - Australia, New Zealand - Covid19 appears to have all but been eradicated in New Zealand, which announced Sunday that there are currently believed to be no cases the origins of which have not been fully tracked. In effect, transmission is now believed to be effectively zero. The government has already begun reducing the national alert level from 4 to 3. While the situation in Australia is not quite as definitive, new cases have rarely escaped the double digits for over a week, and it looks unlikely deaths will even reach 100, resulting in a death rate less than a tenth of that of Germany, the most successful country in Europe.
Nearly Done - Italy, Spain, Germany, Czech Republic, Norway - these countries all have seen sustained declines in active case numbers, with the number of Covid19 patients discharged from treatment exceeding the number of new cases. While deaths continue, every government in this category is undertaking steps to reopen.
Declining - Canada, France, The United States, Turkey, the UK -It appears that the pandemic has peaked in all of these countries. Death tolls have been falling consistently enough that it is clear the pandemic is no longer expanding. What separates them from the preceding category I termed "Nearly Done" is the variation within them regarding the pandemic. Multiple outbreaks and a decentralized response mean that while at the national level the numbers appear to be following the same path as Italy and Spain, there are still hot spots which remain, well, "hot". In the United States Boston only recently reached its peak, and subsidiary outbreaks in the military, VA system, and at specific workplaces remain a concern even as the New York area, which accounts for over half of all deaths, has seen its daily mortality rate fall by almost 70%. The UK, while on a downward trajectory, will probably have a much higher death toll on the way down than Italy or Spain, much less Germany, while Canada's also appears to be extended by serious outbreaks in care homes. Turkey's official death rate is highly implausible given the number of cases.
Declining? - Algeria, Egypt Iran, South Africa - All of these countries appear to be seeing at the very least no increase in the death rate, and quite possibly a steady decline, but the dubious nature of the numbers available and limited testing makes it hard to determine just how much that decline has progressed. They are also highly vulnerable to reinfection.
Increasing? - India, Mexico, Indonesia, Pakistan - All of these countries have outbreaks where the death toll and number of cases have shown a steady upward trend, sometimes dramatically as in the cases of India and Mexico where deaths have doubled in the past week. None have conducted widespread testing, and as a result, much as we have no accurate idea of the extent of the decline in Egypt, Iraq, or Iran(and don't really know what the peak looked like), we can be fairly certain based on the numbers we do have and the actions of the respective governments that the situation is currently deteriorating.
Exploding - Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Russia - These countries have shown the fastest growth rates in the world. Russia has begun reporting over 6000 new confirmed cases a day, and while the percentage in the Moscow region has fallen from 72% to around 64% over the last week, they remain concentrated enough in the capital to create the suspicion that the real national numbers are much higher than the official numbers which already are approaching 100,000. Brazil has proven to be the first country outside Europe or the United States to regularly report over 200 deaths a day, averaging daily totals greater than 300 and as high as 400 over the last week. The country is gripped by a political crisis after the President fired his Health Minister over the former's opposition to a lockdown and the Justice Minister resigned alleging improper executive intervention into police investigations focusing on the President's son.
Update 4/19/2020
The last several days have confirmed my judgment that a number of the countries below bear watching closely. There can now be little or no doubt that Brazil, Russia and Turkey are now Covid19 hotspots, except perhaps for Brazil's increasingly embattled President Jair Bolsinaro who this week fired his Health Minister. While the numbers are still obscured by a lack of tests, it now also appears clear that Indonesia, India, and Mexico have rapidly expanding infections that appear to be expanding at an exponential rate. As for Algeria and Egypt, I am genuinely confused by their numbers. Their rates of testing remain low to non-existent, but deaths, while they have not ceased, have also failed to grow. It is plausible that the lack of testing means that deaths from Covid19 are not being counted as such. Clearly if a continued infection did not persist the numbers would look very different. Nonetheless, it is unclear what purpose tracking their statistics closely serves when their own numbers carry so little insight into what is actually going on.
Current Case Count: 2,629
Current Deaths: 375
Tests: 6,500
Tests per Million: 148
Last 7 Days New Cases: 69, 87, 90, 108, 150, 116, 95
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 20, 13, 10, 12, 16, 3, 8
Algeria has seen a steady drop in the number of deaths. Case numbers have been low enough to imply far more cases exist than are being detected, but how far that also implies an under-count of deaths which are not being ascribed to Covid19 is unclear. Algeria clearly continues to have an outbreak but its intensity is impossible to judge beyond the evidence that is not out of control o threatening to shut down the country.
Current Case Count: 36,925
Current Deaths: 2,372
Tests: 62,985
Tests per Million: 296
Last 7 Days New Cases: 1278, 1238, 1832, 3348, 2073, 2999, 3042
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 83, 105, 204, 225, 190, 194, 220
Brazil's President along with his supporters seem to be the only individuals to doubt that the country is now a major Covid19 hot-spot. Daily deaths have more than doubled in the past week, and despite testing short-falls, the number of confirmed cases continues to rise. Brazil is unfortunate in that a major political crisis appears to have erupted over the seriousness of the outbreak, with the President calling on his supporters to rally against lock-down restrictions imposed by local governors including his own allies, while firing his popular Health Minister who spoke out in favor of social distancing. Given Brazil's sheer, size, limited medical resources, and the lack of a coherent governmental response, the country seems destined to provide a case study of how effective social distancing guidelines were elsewhere by illustrating the consequences of their absence.
Current Case Count: 6,575
Current Deaths: 582
Tests: 42,219
Tests per Million: 154
Indonesia's reporting continues to be erratic. The valleys do appear to be becoming higher, and if we are not seeing exponential growth, that may well be due to the lack of reporting. The virus is clearly present.
Current Case Count: 7,497
Current Deaths: 650
Tests: 40,091
Tests per Million: 311
Mexico has confirmed more new cases on each of the last six days than on the day before. At the same time, the last two days of the week saw no less than 164 confirmed deaths compared with 59 reported on the first two days, an increase of nearly 300%. And while the total has not increased by quite that much, deaths have more than doubled in the last week from 277 to 650. Mexico now appears to be about a week to ten days behind Brazil and regular daily death tolls of well over 200.
Current Case Count: 47,121
Current Deaths: 405
Tests: 2,050,000
Tests per Million: 14,047
In a broadcast for the Orthodox Easter, President Putin insisted that the Covid19 outbreak in Russia was "fully under control". The President's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov was more sanguine, merely expressing the hope that new cases might begin to plateau by the end of next week. Worryingly for Russia, the vast majority of current cases appear to be concentrated in Moscow. The city itself reported 26,350 cases as of April 20th, with a further 5,241 in the surrounding Moscow Oblast. Together they account for nearly two-thirds of the cases in the country. The next highest concentration is in Saint Petersburg, with a mere 1,846 cases. This may imply a concentrated infection, or more worryingly a lack of testing outside of the capital region. In the former case, it implies that Moscow is perhaps the fastest growing hot-spot in the world. In the latter, it implies even with (actual) stepped up testing, the full-scale of the outbreak on a national level may be going unaddressed, an outcome which would be especially concerning given the vastly weaker healthcare infrastructure outside of two largest cities.
Current Case Count: 86,306
Current Deaths: 2,017
Tests: 634,277
Tests per Million: 7,521
Update 4/15/2020
As expected the last two days brought large increases in the death toll in many countries around the world. Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Russia all reported their highest one day totals, with Brazil reporting 204 deaths for April 14th. It is now fairly clear that Brazil and Russia are facing uncontrolled outbreaks, though the evidence in these cases goes beyond the numbers alone. Two Brazilian governors tested positive for Covid19, while in Russia, President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia had yet to approach the peak of the epidemic. The overwhelming majority of China's new cases were in provinces along the Russian border.
More broadly, the global numbers painted a more mixed picture. After having peaked at a daily rate of over 80,000, the number of new infections has generally fallen into a range in the high 60s and low 70 thousands. While this does reflect a decline in new infections in Western Europe, and a peak in many parts of the United States, the evidence indicates that it may also reflect a shift in the center of the epidemic from countries with extensive testing resources to nations without the ability to conduct them. While deaths may be a lagging indicator, that they have not fallen but increased globally reinforces this impression. Even if Europe and the United States are in a position to soon move towards a gradual reopening of their economies rigid border controls are likely to be necessary for the foreseeable future.
Current Case Count: 1,914
Current Deaths: 293
Tests: 3359
Tests per Million: 77
Last 7 Days New Cases: 69, 103, 45, 104, 94, 95, 64, 89
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 22, 21, 20, 12, 30, 21, 19, 18
Not much to see here. The death rate is neither increasing nor decreasing. The case numbers are sufficiently low relative to tests(a ratio of less than 1:5) that we can be fairly certain they do not paint an accurate picture of reality.
Current Case Count: 25,758
Current Deaths: 1,557
Tests: 62,985
Tests per Million: 296
Last 7 Days New Cases: 2154, 1957, 1644, 1173, 1278, 1238, 1832
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 134, 134, 114, 76, 83, 105, 204
Brazil's death toll provides perhaps the closest thing to an exponential curve outside of Europe, Asia, and North America. The last two days saw a nearly 25% increase in the death toll, along with the single highest daily total at 204. It is probably fair to conclude that Brazil's case numbers are the result of low testing capacity rather than a decline in the growth of the number of new infections, as if the latter were the case they would be steadily falling rather than remaining within the range of 2000 or so.
Current Case Count: 5,136
Current Deaths: 469
Tests: 36,000
Tests per Million: 132
Last 7 Days New Cases: 218, 347, 219, 330, 399, 316, 297
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 19, 40, 26, 21, 46, 26, 70, 10
Indonesia reported a combined death toll for the last two days of 80, equal to a 23% increase over the period. Given that there is no serious efforts to track the scale of infection through tests, this delayed reporting of deaths is probably better indicative of development of the outbreak over the last few days.
Current Case Count: 5,399
Current Deaths: 406
Tests: 40,091
Tests per Million: 311
Last 7 Days New Cases: 346, 396, 260, 403, 375, 443, 353, 385
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 33, 20, 39, 40, 23, 36, 74
Over the last two days alone, Mexico's reported death toll rose by more than one third. That seems far more indicative of a steady expansion of the infection than the erratic testing results.
Current Case Count: 42,853
Current Deaths: 361
Tests: 1,940,000
Tests per Million: 13,294
Last 7 Days New Cases: 2558, 2774, 3388, 3448, 4070, 4785. 6060
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 18, 22, 28, 34, 41, 40, 48
In a video for Orthodox Easter, President Putin expressed his hope that with "god's help" Russia had viral infection which numbers now show is perhaps the fastest growing in the world under "full control." His spokesman, Dmitry Pestov was more measured, expressing the hope that the number of new cases would begin to plateau within the next week. It is worth noting that he did not predict they would do so, or specify the beginning or end of next week. Even if the latter were to actually occur, it would imply that confirmed cases would probably reach 80-100,000 before slowing down.
At the moment the outbreak appears to be concentrated in Moscow. According to official numbers, as of April 19th, the city of Moscow accounted for 24.323 cases or around 57% of all cases within the entire country, with an additional 4.663 in the wider Moscow Oblast on the outskirts of the city. That implies well over 70% of confirmed cases are in Moscow. While this might make sense and reflect reality,the numbers may also imply a lack of testing outside of Moscow. Both Bashkortostan and Dagestan currently report more deaths than Saint Petersburg despite less than a sixth the number of confirmed cases, a clear indication of a discrepancy in testing.
Current Case Count: 86,306
Current Deaths: 2,017
Tests: 634,277
Tests per Million: 7,521
Last 7 Days New Cases: 4093, 4062, 4281, 4801, 4353, 3783 3977
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 98, 107, 115, 125, 126, 121, 127
Turkey's daily increase in cases has been stable in the 3800-4800 range for the last week. While a high level, this would seem to indicate a ceiling to daily testing capacity, albeit one with more in common with the situation in the UK than with that in nations like Indonesia. It is simply not possible to process an infinite number of tests, and Turkey appears like the UK to have hit a ceiling around 20-25,000 a day.
The death numbers are repeating the preexisting pattern of a plateau followed by a leap succeeded by yet another plateau. We should expect another jump around Tuesday, probably to around 150 or so deaths a day.
Update 4/13/2020
To echo my observation yesterday, in many countries the numbers released over the weekend are artificially depressed due to a large number of hospitals and local authorities failing to report cases and deaths. The First Minister of Scotland herself noted this in her daily press conference where she announced a mere nine new deaths in Scotland after two preceding days where the death toll was in the 20s and 40s respectively. For most of the world,tomorrow's numbers will be the truly interesting ones. That said, Russia and Turkey both showed little variation indicating some combination of bottlenecks, poor reporting, or falsification of numbers. Even with the official releases, they along with Brazil remain on track towards hotspot status.
Current Case Count: 1,914
Current Deaths: 293
Tests: 3359
Tests per Million: 77
Last 7 Days New Cases: 69, 103, 45, 104, 94, 95, 64, 89
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 22, 21, 20, 12, 30, 21, 19, 18
Not much to see here. The death rate is neither increasing nor decreasing. The case numbers are sufficiently low relative to tests(a ratio of less than 1:5) that we can be fairly certain they do not paint an accurate picture of reality.
Current Case Count: 22,318
Current Deaths: 1,241
Tests: 62,985
Tests per Million: 296
Last 7 Days New Cases: 929, 1851, 2154, 1957, 1644, 1173, 1278
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 78, 122, 134, 134, 114, 76, 101
Yesterday's numbers increased compared to preceding days, continuing the day today trend. If they behave as expected we should see a big jump tomorrow.
Current Case Count: 4,557
Current Deaths: 399
Tests: 27,075
Tests per Million: 99
Last 7 Days New Cases: 218, 247, 218, 347, 219, 330, 399
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 11, 12, 19, 40, 26, 21, 46, 26
Indonesia saw a fall in deaths, but an increase in reported cases to the highest one day total. Even the government seems uncertain what is going on with political controversy erupting over whether Indonesians should be discouraged from traveling home for Ramadan.
Current Case Count: 4,661
Current Deaths: 296
Tests: 35,479
Tests per Million: 275
Last 7 Days New Cases: 253, 296, 346, 396, 260, 403, 375, 443
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 15, 31, 16, 33, 20, 39, 40, 23
Mexico saw a fall in reported deaths but its highest single day of reported cases.
Current Case Count: 18,328
Current Deaths: 148
Tests: 1,300,000
Tests per Million: 8,908
Last 7 Days New Cases: 1154, 1175, 1459, 1786, 1667, 2186, 2558
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 15, 11, 5, 13, 18, 12, 24, 18
First things first. Russia claims to have reported the results of nearly 100,000 tests in the last 24hrs. That should put the reported total of 2,558 new cases into perspective. If accurate, that would mean that less than 3% of those tested reported positive, compared with around 30% in the UK where 14,000 tests produced 4,400 positive cases. This seems highly dubious, and is perhaps the best evidence yet that something is deeply wrong with these numbers. That said, even on face value they show the single largest one day increase in confirmed cases and the third highest death toll. Something is happening in Russia.
Current Case Count: 56,956
Current Deaths: 1,198
Tests: 376,100
Tests per Million: 4459
Last 7 Days New Cases: 3148, 3892, 4117, 4056, 4747, 5,138, 4789
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 75, 76, 87, 96, 98, 95, 97
Turkey saw a small drop in the number of new cases but within the range for the last three days. We also had a fourth day in which deaths remained in the narrow range of 95-98. Turkey attempted to implement a partial lockdown this weekend, with the botched implementation leading the interior minister to offer his resignation which was rejected by President Erodgan
Update 4/12/2020
It is worth noting first of all that today is a Sunday and not just any Sunday but Easter Sunday. Historically, reported numbers have dropped substantially over the weekend as many local governments and hospitals fail to report numbers, only for massive "bumps" to occur on Tuesdays when the numbers for the weekend finally are reported in full. As such, lower numbers are not a huge surprise. Higher numbers, however, are. They indicate the rate of increase continues.
Current Case Count: 1,825
Current Deaths: 275
Tests: 3359
Tests per Million: 77
Last 7 Days New Cases: 69, 103, 45, 104, 94, 95, 64
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 22, 21, 20, 12, 30, 21, 19
Not much to see here. The number of deaths and new infections mirrored last weekend. It probably is not out of control, but nor has it gone away.
Current Case Count: 21,042
Current Deaths: 1,144
Tests: 62,985
Tests per Million: 296
Last 7 Days New Cases: 894, 929, 1851, 2154, 1957, 1644, 1173
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 41, 78, 122, 134, 134, 114, 76
Yesterday's numbers dropped compared with the preceding days, but still increased by around 50% day-to-day on the preceding week. We really need to wait for Tuesday for a clearer pattern.
Current Case Count: 4,241
Current Deaths: 373
Tests: 27,075
Tests per Million: 99
Last 7 Days New Cases: 218, 247, 218, 347, 219, 330, 399
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 7, 11, 12, 19, 40, 26, 21, 46
Indonesia had its single deadliest day and its single highest number of confirmed cases. Unlike other countries on this list, the trajectory here has been fairly consistent. It is also an exponential increase on the preceding week.
Current Case Count: 4,219
Current Deaths: 273
Tests: 35,479
Tests per Million: 275
Last 7 Days New Cases: 202, 253, 296, 346, 396, 260, 403, 375
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 19, 15, 31, 16, 33, 20, 39, 40
Like Indonesia, Mexico also saw its single deadliest day on Saturday with more than twice the deaths reported the preceding week.
Current Case Count: 15,770
Current Deaths: 130
Tests: 1,200,000
Tests per Million: 8,223
Last 7 Days New Cases: 954, 1154, 1175, 1459, 1786, 1667, 2186
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 15, 11, 5, 13, 18, 12, 24
Russia is an interesting case. Following the initial outbreak in Wuhan, Russia rapidly closed its borders and began what was purportedly a mass testing program in which over a million tests were conducted. The results seemed to indicate that Russia had avoided serious infection, revealing almost no cases. As late as March 17th, Russia had less than 100 cases. But soon concerns began to leak out about the quality of the tests in use in Russia, and questions were raised about a 37% spike in pneumonia cases in February. In late March, the Moscow Mayor ordered a lock-down, and in the last few days that has been extended across the country with President Vladimir Putin holding virtual cabinet meetings. The rapidly increasing number of confirmed cases indicates a growing infection in Moscow where authorities have been quick to dim hopes they were anywhere near the peak of the outbreak. There seems to be little to no testing or coverage outside of Moscow and Saint Petersburg at all and the real situation could be much worse. I would not be surprised to see death tolls in 75-100 daily range by this time next weekend. There is reason to question the accuracy of these figures, though not if you are Russian. A doctor was recently arrested for doing so.
Current Case Count: 52,126
Current Deaths: 1,101
Tests: 340,380
Tests per Million: 4036
Last 7 Days New Cases: 3135, 3148, 3892, 4117, 4056, 4747, 5,138
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 73, 75, 76, 87, 96, 98, 95
Turkey's aggressive testing program continued, resulting in the highest number of confirmed cases in a single day on Saturday. Given the exponential increase in testing it is hard to tell how much of the growth in case count is due to a greater number of tests versus a greater number of cases but the fact that the numbers continue to increase indicates that they are not falling. A falling number of confirmed cases would indicate that Turkey was able to test healthier patients. The death numbers have continued their vaguely linear increase. After four days in the mid-70s, we have now had three days in a 3 death range in the upper 90s. We should expect another jump of 12-15 in the next day or two.
Update 4/11/2020
Current Case Count: 1761
Current Deaths: 256
Tests: 3359
Tests per Million: 77
Last 7 Days New Cases: 80, 69, 103, 45, 104, 94, 95
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 25, 22, 21, 20, 12, 30, 21
Algeria had one of the earliest infections in Africa. It has seen a slow rise in numbers. Looking at deaths, one could be convinced that the infection has peaked, but i the last two days the number of deaths jumped again. Testing has been near nonexistent, with positive/test ratio of well over 50%. It is quite possible that the vast majority of deaths are not being recorded as due to Covid19 due to a lack of testing. If numbers keep hovering in this range there is a real threat the virus could take-off which would be a major threat to Europe given the large Algerian community within France.
Current Case Count: 19,943
Current Deaths: 1,074
Tests: 62,985
Tests per Million: 296
Last 7 Days New Cases: 1166, 894, 929, 1851, 2154, 1957, 1644
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 84, 41, 78, 122, 134, 134, 114
Brazil has slightly ramped up testing in recent days, but it is still only around a twentieth of the rate within the United States. While it may look like case numbers have stalled, very little testing is being done in poorer slums. The death rate, while erratic has moved steadily upwards, and there is reason to believe it will continue to do so. Concerns have been raised that the lockdown imposed in several cities is crumbling, and the President has come under fire for openly flouting it on social media. Brazil is the first country outside of Western Europe/US to begin breaking into three digit figures, and given the scale and travel throughout the region probably endangers containment efforts across Latin America.
Current Case Count: 3,842
Current Deaths: 327
Tests: 19,452
Tests per Million: 77
Last 7 Days New Cases: 181, 218, 247, 218, 347, 219, 330
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 7, 11, 12, 19, 40, 26, 21
Indonesia maintained that it had no infections whatsoever during the initial, Wuhan-phase, of the outbreak in February. In the last week, both infections and deaths have risen, albeit with erratic day to day variations. The numbers come to nearly 1800 cases and 136 deaths. Given Indonesia's population of more than 200 million and lack of any concerted testing or efforts to count, if deaths continue at this rate or rise to the level seen in Turkey, we may well be looking at a rapidly growing outbreak.
Current Case Count: 3,844
Current Deaths: 233
Tests: 31,492
Tests per Million: 244
Last 7 Days New Cases: 202, 253, 296, 346, 396, 260, 403
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 19, 15, 31, 16, 33, 20, 39
Mexico should be of particular concern to Americans given the long, poorly controlled border between the two countries and extensive cross-border traffic, especially among season workers and illegal migrants. It should be doubly troubling that Mexico is not really testing to any great degree, especially outside the elite who have traveled internationally. Case numbers have been moving upwards, but the consistent rise in deaths should be most concerning. It looks a whole lot like Brazil a week previously. If an uncontrolled outbreak is ongoing within Mexico it would be a direct threat to US security given the prospect of reinfection.
Current Case Count: 47,029
Current Deaths: 1006
Tests: 307,210
Tests per Million: 3,643
Last 7 Days New Cases: 3013, 3135, 3148, 3892, 4117, 4056, 4747
Last 7 Days New Deaths: 76, 73, 75, 76, 87, 96, 98
Turkey appears to be testing aggressively, though the very stability of the number of deaths resembles Iran where they vary within a very thin range. That said, an explanation may exist for that within limited hospital capacity. If only those deaths which take place in hospitals of those under treatment for Covid19 are counted, then a limited number of ICU beds would limit the number of deaths counted even if the total numbers increase. The numbers are increasing even if they are remarkably stable in the way in which they are doing so. Combined with the explosion in case numbers, the reluctance of the Erdogan government to impose extreme measures which might harm the already precarious Turkish economy, and the large refugee population Turkey is hosting from Syria, the situation in Turkey is highly concerning and bears a close watch over the next week.
