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Next month will mark the two-decade anniversary of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. It deserves a more impartial evaluation than it has received.

While Washington is treating Beijing's intentions like a mystery box, Beijing is very clear that its approach to Taiwan is political first, with military to only follow a failure.

The United States will face a careful balancing act as Erdogan confronts the greatest challenge to his rule in over two decades. A wrong move could push Turkey into the arms of Moscow and Beijing.

Contrary to the charges of conspiracists the United States played no role in the recent violence in Brazil's capital. A failure to reckon with polarization there will be rebound against the United States nonetheless.

For all the discussion about a "Pink Tide" in Latin America, the only left-leaning governments which are not in trouble are those which have yet to take office.

A winter in a London on strike, without access to the NHS, with friends forgoing heat, and a government drifting aimlessly recalls stories of the 1970s.

A narrowing inner-circle, purges of the entire state apparatus, and popularity conflated with sedition. Khamenei's management of the Islamic Republic resembles the Shah's final years.

Protests over Gay Rights in Qatar reveal the declining influence of the West in large parts of the world.

The Biden Team have done well to champion aid to Ukraine, but the efforts to wield the issue as a weapon against Donald Trump and his supporters at home have contributed to declining public support for aid.

Netanyahu's victory reinforces the fact that for now he is the only man able to bridge Israel's divides and coopt the nation's fragmented political forces.

The fall of Liz Truss solves one of the City of London's problems, but few of the Conservative Party's and none of Britain's.

Putin's nuclear threats should be taken for what they are. Expressions of frustration, not an indicator of immanent action.

Damned if she does, damned if she doesn't. Liz Truss confronts a British economy in long-term decline with few tools.

The coverage of Italy's elections is high on alarmism about an inflated "fascist" threat and scarce when it comes to analysis of what actually transpired.

The Biden Administration has been slow to grasp that internal dynamics in Iran mean that Tehran is not interested in a new nuclear accord.

Originally published by AMAC at https://amac.us/the-battle-to-replace-boris-johnson/

( This was originally featured on Amac under a different title https://amac.us/ukraine-silences-doubters-and-takes-the-first-steps-to-win-war-with-russia/)

(Originally published on AMAC https://amac.us/europes-energy-crisis-approaches-breaking-point/)

(Originally published on AMAC https://amac.us/britains-new-prime-minister-the-leeds-girl-who-refuses-to-be-written-off/)

(Originally published on AMAC https://amac.us/bidens-next-foreign-policy-disaster-destroying-iraq/)

(Originally published on AMAC https://amac.us/mikhail-gorbachev-a-noble-failure/)

The United States cannot afford passive-aggression with a Saudi Arabia which has other options, and enormous political capital within Washington. (From AMAC https://amac.us/biden-driving-saudis-into-chinas-arms/)

(Originally published on AMAC https://amac.us/how-bidens-sanctions-on-russian-energy-are-playing-right-into-putins-hands/)

(Originally published on AMAC at https://amac.us/boriss-downfall/)

The sweep of Ontario's elections by Rob Ford's Progressive Conservatives highlights many of the same demographic forces realigning American and British politics. (Originally on AMAC )

The "Baby Formula Crisis" highlights once again how vulnerable global supply-chains are and the need for indigenous manufacturing capacity.

(Originally published by AMAC https://amac.us/the-only-solution-to-the-war-in-ukraine-is-on-the-battlefield/)

(Originally published on AMAC https://amac.us/australias-election-is-a-reminder-that-deeds-matter-more-than-words/)

Orban's victory was not based on gerrymandering, but excellent political skills, an exploitation of the situation, and the errors of his opponents. Not to mention his own record in government. (Originally on AMAC)

Putin finds himself in a position regarding Ukraine from which retreat is not an option, and negotiations hold out no prospect of a settlement acceptable to Russia. America is uninterested in offering him an exit ramp

Johnson's opponents never understood why previous efforts to unseat him both internally and externally failed, and hence are now committing the same mistakes.

For all the panic about a prospective Russian invasion of Ukraine, little time has been invested in trying to determine what Putin might hope to achieve.

The struggle between Warsaw and Brussels is not really about the rule of law. It is about the European Unions efforts to rule through law. (Originally on AMAC)

Biden cannot be blamed for migrants wishing to come to America. The responsibility for antagonizing the neghbors whose cooperation is vital to a functional border policy is entirely on him.

With the benefit of three decades, the greatest failure of US foreign policy was not failing to nation build in Afghanistan or Iraq, but the refusal to invest even minimal capital in making Russia's transition a success

After three elections, countless scandals, and three American Presidents, Justin Truedeau's luck may be about to run out.

Almost everything the US did in Afghanistan failed. But Democracy did not, as it was never seriously tried. (Originally published by AMAC https://amac.us/democracy-didnt-fail-in-afghanistan-anti-democratic-liberalism-did

Originally posted on AMAC as https://amac.us/how-biden-is-blowing-a-historic-opportunity-to-free-cuba/

Once cited as an exemplar of liberal goverance, South Africa is descending into chaos, as the government tries to appease the forces of dissolution and chaos

(Originally published on AMAC. Featured on Real Clear Politics. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/authors/daniel_roman/)

(Originally published on AMAC and featured on Real Clear Politics under the title "Even Iran’s Leaders Are Admitting the Regime Is Corrupt, but John Kerry Is Determined to Legitimize Them")

Originally written for AMAC https://amac.us/as-trump-heads-to-north-carolina-recent-history-explains-why-dem-hopes-for-state-look-bleak/

(Originally posted on AMAC https://amac.us/could-china-win-a-war-with-the-u-s-over-taiwan/)

Originally published on AMAC at https://amac.us/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth-why-china-has-no-choice-but-to-move-on-taiwan-and-to-move-soon/

The events at the US Capitol were not a victory for the Constitution or for Congress. Like most failed coups, the winners were political actors other than the protagonists.

That the UK and the European Union concluded a trade agreement is far from any triumph of diplomatic skill. The real significance of Brexit lays in what the process revealed about both sides.

Official turnout in Sunday's Venezuelan National Assembly election was a paltry 31% indicating that Maduro and his ruling PSUV did not even have to bother to rig. The opposition had all but ceased to exist beforehand.

Rumors of a breakdown in talks at the last moment between the UK and the EU in the past have been the prelude to the announcement of a new deal, it is unclear why this time should be different.

Joe Biden's National Security team represents a belief that the Trump years were an aberration. It was the same conclusion Obama's incoming drew in 2009 regarding the Bush years.

Analysis as to what pollsters missed about 2020 ignores what they got right. In 2020 failed to see what would happen. In 2020 pollsters saw everything coming, but rejected their own data.

After 2016. it was a given that skepticism would exist about Presidential polling. That uncertainty has manifested in two polling universes. One show ing a close EC race and a 3-4 point Biden lead and the other a blowout

The Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict has not only set back the development of both states, it has crippled the economic and political ambition of Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the West in the region. Yet it continues.

There is one character missing from David Cameron's memoirs, whose motives, thoughts, and feelings remain a mystery after hundreds of pages. The author

Deviations from the historical record are common in entertainment. What is less common is deviations which make the past appear more backwards socially and less interesting dramatically.

For all the focus on Covid19 in Europe and the United States, it is the rise in cases and deaths outside of those continents which poses a longer-term threat to a quick economic recovery

All signs point to an uncontrolled outbreak of Ncov19 among Iran's political and military elite. The virus has the potential to not just topple the Iranian regime but reshape the Middle East.

The resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauern was not a blow to the Chancellor per se. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer had already failed. But it raises questions whether anyone else can continue it.

After years of 24/7 crisis coverage by MSNBC and CNN, and complex intercene squabbles on left twitter, the Democrats have produced the most insider-friendly campaign in history. No wonder the public is tuning out

Republicans are eager to face Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders this fall, but should be wary of rushing into a manichean battle against Socialism without the proper groundwork having been laid

Discussion has focused on Parliament's passage of legislation outlawing "No Deal" in terms of British domestic politics. But by allowing the EU to submit extensions to a Commons vote it opens a different option.

A majority in Parliament probably will be able to stop a No Deal Brexit and almost everyone assumes it will. But all such assumptions rest on Jeremy Corbyn cooperating. The real question is why should he?

There is a lack of reality about the Conservative leadership contest that goes beyond basic math or parliamentary arithmetic. No one considers what they hope Brexit will accomplish.

The Brexit Party won the 2019 European Elections in the United Kingdom, but Brexit as a cause lost. By failing to breakthrough outside traditional right-wing voter circles, all incentive for Labour to back Brexit is gone

It was not a good night for the far-right in Europe or Brexiteers in the UK, but it was nowhere near as much of a success for their opponents as some seem to believe.

Theresa May's resignation represents not Conservative divisions over Brexit, but an increasing consensus. Whatever the merits of the policy, the Tories must go down as the party of Brexit.

The Venezuelan opposition's efforts to remove Maduro have done more than anything else to ensure his continued survival, and Juan Guaido's bid for power is a farce that is in danger for transforming into tragedy

Steve Baker may have not been at his most reflective when he lashed out at the House of Commons' grandstanding over indicative votes, but he was absolutely right to describe it as pantomime carried out by cowards.

The results of the EU Summit on March 21-22 were a major humiliation to Theresa May, as the EU bypassed her to issue an ultimatum directly to the UK Parliament. But they did so with little hope it would be taken up.

While I still believe the UK is headed for a long Article 50 extension, I increasingly feel the EU is contemplating the prospect of a "Temporary No Deal" to remove the threat of an A50 revocation and teach a lesson

Someone, someday, should try to make a biopic about Richard Cheney. Vice, by contrast, is a satircal film about how its director and intended see American politics. Conspiratorial, incomprehensible, and tainted.

The only thing Parliament can agree on is what it does not want, and comfortable with that. It is likely to be Brussels, rather than domestic pressure, that forces the UK towards a decision.

The decision to pull the vote on her proposed agreement with the EU may have saved Theresa May a defeat in the Commons, but it may have forfeited a chance to force a confronation with the bankrupcy of almost all options

With a "deal" imminant, Theresa May faces the likihood of defeat in the Commons as MPs of all stripes vote for Schrodinger's rejection. But Jeremy Corbyn, not Remainers or Leavers, , holds almost all the card

Germany has a long tradition of adopting stubborn stands in the Balkans out of misplaced principle leading to disaster, from 1914 to 1991. But the opposition to a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia is truly absurd

Critics are right to suggest that the current fight over migration is motivated as much by political ambitions as security threats. But Angela Merkel has done more than anyone else to make it that way

It is an article of faith among the American political elite that the DACA program is universally popular and a political winner for Democrats. That premise is being put to the test this week.

America's recognition of Jerusalem may make "talks" less likely, but only harms the "Peace Process" to the extent to which Palestinian sovriegnty over the city was ever on the table, which is to say not at all.

The temptation for journalists to focus on the "horse race" of campaigns has always existed, but few have seen their coverage as totally determined by the results of questionable polls than today's Virginia elections

The inexplicable inaction of the Catalonian government following the referendum vote shifted the political initiatative back to the Spanish government, and has left seccesionists divided and demoralized

The Spanish government was in a no situation with regards to the Catalan referendum. Precedent showed that allowing it to proceed would have established its legitimacy, whereas enforcing the law was a PR disaster

A flaw of Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare has been a lack of agreement on why they are doing so. With the most recent effort, there seems to have been a abandonment of even trying to claim healthcare will improve

Upcoming elections in Austria, Germany, and Norway appear likely to be dissapointments for the far-right. But with the exception of Norway, this owes more to a resurgence of the center-right than a leftward swing

The criticisms of the cult of the Confederacy in the South, that it excludes African Americans and minimizes the crimes of slavery are beyond a doubt true. But critics seem more interested in destroying idols than unity.

Venezuela's recent Constituent Assembly elections were a mockery, but so is every other aspect of governance in the country at this point. The struggle is no longer about ideology, but rather power.

US aid to the Syrian opposition never had a political objective, and therefore lacked any viable military goals as well. The decision of the Trump Adminstration to terminate it will be spun as Pro-Russian, but is overdue

It is now clear that on Brexit there is no "deal" to be made. If British voters truly value immigration control more than economics they need to be prepared to walk. And if they value economics, "Soft Brexit" is a fraud

The implications of the Conservative government of Theresa May losing its majority in the House of Commons on June 9th, 2017 have dominated media discourse. Momentous enough, exageration has taken the place of analysis

For all the focus on Rouhani's reelection as President, the real shift in Iran happened downballot a delayed effect of how important the transfer of the Presidency in 2013 actually was despite the limitations.

Even before last nights YouGov and Survation polls the gap was already closing between Labour and the Tories. The dynamics of the campaign made this inevitable, just as they ensure the tough part lies ahead for Corbyn

The first of several looks at the polling, campaigns, and dynamics of the UK 2017 election..

Recent comments about the Civil War have reopened a debate that wrongly focuses on "what the Civil War was about?" rather than the more interesting question of why it had to be fought.

The decision of the Scottish Government to seek a second referendum is a gamble that the panic surrounding Brexit will disguise the fact that the prospects for an independent Scotland are worse than in 2014

Theresa May's stubborness on the right of EU nationals to remain in the UK will force hard choices on many MPs. That is precisely why the Prime Minister is so insistent on doing it.

Twenty years after it successfully ended a war, the Dayton structure has failed miserably at building a stable and united Bosnia in peace. Why not allow the state to split up?

As Germans prepare to go to the polls, the greatest threat to Angela Merkel is neither anger over her asylum policy, nor populism of the right or left. Nor even is it new SPD leader Martin Schulz. It is boredom itself

For all the venom directed at "Facists" by leftwing activists throughout history, the truly revolutionary forces on the right have always taken their inspirationn from the example set by their leftwing counterparts

By connecting killing TPP and the reinstatement of the Mexico City Policy on abortion, the Trump Adminstration handed orginized labor their greatest politican win in decades while ensuring foes would only talk abortion

For all the talk of an Obama-doctrine giving way to a Pro-Russian Trump policy, the shift back to realism already occured during the Syrian conflict.

The dominant figure in Iran following Khomeini's death in 1989, Rafsanjani tried to build a political order on personality rather than ideology or policy and found himself adrift and distrusted by all sides.