US Election Rundown September 26th 2016

Going into the debates, Clinton likely has a small, but firm lead in the popular vote, undermined by weakness in critical states.

September 26, 2016
September 28, 2016

US Election Rundown September 21st 2016

Some new national polls, and finally a Maine poll which looks at the gap between congressional districts.

September 21, 2016
September 23, 2016

US Election Rundown September 19th 2016

A look at a weekend which brought few polls, a bait and switch Trump press conference, and explosions in New York.

September 19, 2016
September 23, 2016

US Election Rundown September 16th 2016

This will be the first of a series of posts I intend to write through election day looking at polling and other developments over the preceding 24hrs.

September 16, 2016
September 23, 2016

The Problem With Debates About Russian Expansionism: A Historical Consideration of Empire and Russian Foriegn Policy

What the West sees as Russian expansionism into Europe in fact represents a dillema no Russian leader mas managed to solve in three centuries. How ensure that its neghbors are not anti-Russian absent occupation.

September 2, 2016
September 3, 2016

America After Both Trump and Clinton

Forget the focus on where the Republican party goes after a Trump defeat. The party remains poised for 2018 gains, and only a presidential victory in 2020 may stand between it and the power wielded in Poland or Hungary.

August 24, 2016
August 24, 2016

Trump's Post-Convention Implosion: The real damage Trump is inflicting on the GOP is to deny it a message

The sheer randomness of the Trump campaign has hitherto innoculated the candidate against any individual offense. But his own heresies have prevented the wider party from finding any sort of message in 2016.

August 4, 2016
August 24, 2016

Hitting Trump on Russia cannot disguise the fact that Clinton does not have a Russia policy.

The attempt to turn the leak of emails from the Democratic National Committee into a debate over whether Trump is "soft" on Russia or Putin is exactly the sort of inflexible thinking that has ruined US policy in Syria.

July 30, 2016
August 1, 2016

The boring Republican National Convention and the uneventful presidential campaign

One of the most interesting Presidential primaries in history has given way to one of the least eventful general election campaigns, something that Clinton has no reason to change, and likely will not until the debates.

July 20, 2016
July 25, 2016

More July 20th 1944 than Reichstag Fire: Thoughts on the seriousness of the Turkish coup

The complexity of Friday's has led to a focus on whether or not the coup was somehow "staged".That is to miss the importance of how politics in Turkey has become about one man, and effective opposition about killing him.

July 16, 2016
July 19, 2016

Fiasco: How the Brexit Coup Failed

If Brexit was a coup, then it must stand alongside the August 1991 effort in Moscow as one of worst fiascos in history. In the end, it entrenched those already in power, and left their enemies prostrate before them.

July 12, 2016
July 13, 2016

What if there was an election, and it was about nothing at all? The issue free Labour leadership contest.

Not since the 2004 Democratic Presidential Primaries has there been an election as devoid of issues as the Labour Leadership contest. The result has been to present an image of a party wracked by personal feuds.

July 11, 2016
July 13, 2016

One of Them: Why the "Remainer" Theresa May is winning the Conservative leadership

Seeing Conservative leadership race in terms of Leavers v. Remainers misses the point. Theresa May might have backed Remain, but on a tribal level Leavers know she is one of them in a way Gove or Johnson never could be.

July 4, 2016
July 4, 2016

Politics is not a drama: Michael Gove's failed bid

Michael Gove may have acted out a real life episode of House of Cards, but the net effect of his manuevers is likely to the eclipse of his own career.

July 3, 2016
July 5, 2016

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